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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 March 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATED AT 15.7 MMST; DECLINE 6.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 02 March 17
ULTRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA COAL ROUNDS IS BEING FIXED AT AROUND MID 11K BSS SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Holiday mode within Atlantic i.e. very few movements but rates remained still positive, mostly in the USG region where tight tonnage sup ...
Tuesday, 28 February 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 17.39% LESS COAL IN JANUARY; TRADE VALUE UP 11.87% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,625.6 M ...
Monday, 27 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRMED UP THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 57.64% W/W
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commod ...
Friday, 24 February 17
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS WITHSTANDS OIL PRICE SHOCK - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the Russian oil and gas sector has withstood the oil price stock of 1H16. Key events of 2016 include record ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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