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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
Intermodal2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.

Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.

The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.

In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.

Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.

One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.

While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.

In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were  hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
 
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.


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