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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 16
IT'S BEEN YET ANOTHER TURBULENT COUPLE OF DAYS..... - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It’s been yet another turbulent couple of days, with a significant number of news headlines shaking up markets.
On Friday we had & ...
Monday, 05 December 16
INDIAN HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2012, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to Commodore Research, the first eleven months of this year have seen India’s overall electricity production total approximately 1. ...
Monday, 05 December 16
THE DECEMBER 2016 HBA HITS TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MAY 2012
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since May 2012. The government declared benchmark prices for Indo ...
Monday, 05 December 16
BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX UP 5.98%; BALTIC CAPE INDEX FELL 2.52% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally slightly continues this past week and ending on a s ...
Sunday, 04 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 11.9% W/E 26 NOV; UP 1.4% Y/Y, EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million short ton ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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