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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% s ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
COAL DEMAND GROWTH TO STALL AS APPETITE WANES, ACCORDING TO IEA
Growth in global coal demand will stall over the next five years as the appetite for the fuel wanes and other energy sources gain ground, according ...
Monday, 12 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.3 MMST, UP 7.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million short ton ...
Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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