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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 28 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX FALLS TO 1181 POINT, DOWN 76 POINTS W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities down slightly and ending in a negative note this past wee ...
Thursday, 24 November 16
SUPRAMAX: SOUTH AFRICA STILL STRONG WITH OWNERS ACHIEVING AROUND USD 14-15K FOR TRIPS EAST - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A positive kick-off in both the Atlantic and the Pacific. Very healthy rates within USG, some supras receiving well over 20k for trips t ...
Wednesday, 23 November 16
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is due to finalize a reduction in total production at its next scheduled meeting in Vi ...
Tuesday, 22 November 16
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO DECLINE 7% Y/Y TO 15 MILLION TONS IN 2017 - ITALIAN COAL ASSOCIATION
Italy’s steam coal imports expected to decline to 15 million tons in 2017, or 7% less imports compared to 2016. The coking coal imports are e ...
Tuesday, 22 November 16
THE COMMODITIES MARKETS HAD SHOWED GREATER PROMISE SINCE THE SUMMER PERIOD - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have all borne witness to the sluggish pace of trade growth witnessed during the course of the past 4 years as well as the even slower pace note ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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