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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 08 December 16
STABLE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL MINING IN 2017 : FITCH
Fitch Ratings' sector and rating outlooks for the global mining industry in 2017 are both stable, reflecting Fitch's view that prices have ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
CHINESE COAL DEMAND WOULD BE THE KEY FACTOR THAT INFLUENCE WORLD COAL PRICES IN 2017, POLL
“WHAT ARE THE KEY FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE WORLD'S COAL PRICES IN 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALspot.com ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
PANAMAX: THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Market remained firm - true mostly within Atlantic.
Star performer USG remained its title, where Supras reached around USD 21k ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 2% IN 2017 - EIA
U.S. Coal production in November 2016 was 70.7 million short tons (MMst), the third time this year monthly production exceeded 70 MMst, says EIA.
...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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