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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 December 16
OIL PRICES MAY SEE LITTLE GROWTH BEFORE 2018, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
High inventories and the potential for US shale production to respond quickly to any market tightening mean oil prices may flat line in 2017 before ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
CHINA 2017 OIL, GAS OUTPUT DROP MAY WORSEN ON CAPEX CUT: FITCH
China's oil and gas production may shrink even more in 2017 than in 2016 after the country's leading oil companies cut exploration and prod ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
ANOTHER WONDERFUL WEEK FOR PANAMAX - FEARNLEY
Supramax
A slower start to the week in the Pacific compared to last Trips from N. China to S. China is paying in the range of low USD 5k, while I ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
AUSTRALIA'S PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.08 MT OF COAL IN OCTOBER; DOWN 10.39% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,124.7 Mi ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT TOTALS 17.2 MMST, UP 2.8% : EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17.2 million short ton ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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