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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 December 16
TURNAROUND IN CHINESE ECONOMY HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to the most recent Weekly China Report published by Commodore Research, it has remained encouraging that the turnaround in China’s ...
Monday, 19 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 3.1% PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
Monday, 19 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO SOFTEN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continually decline this past week and ending on a negati ...
Thursday, 15 December 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH USD 7K FOR INDO/CHINA COAL ROUNDS - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Pacific has been relatively quiet this week, with some softening signs.
Supramaxes are achieving around high USD 7k for Indo/China ...
Wednesday, 14 December 16
INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL DISMISSED CHURCHILL MINING'S DAMAGES CLAIM AGAINST REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
The Directors of Churchill Mining plc advise that, the ICSID Tribunal (“Tribunal”) granted Indonesia’s application to dismiss the ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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