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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 December 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 711.1 MMST; DOWN 18.5% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 22 December 16
INDONESIA LACK OF EXPORT TO INDIA THIS WEEK - FERNLEYS
Supramax
While the Atlantic is keeping up with rates, the Pacific has been weaker says Astrup Fernley.
According to Astrup Fernley, backhaul ...
Wednesday, 21 December 16
THE SUPREME COURT DECISION IN OW BUNKERS - WHEN A SALE OF GOODS IS NOT A SALE OF GOODS - LEON ALEXANDER, CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In May 2016 the Supreme Court of England & Wales gave judgment in an OW Bunkers test case entitled "Res Cogitans ...
Wednesday, 21 December 16
CLEANING THE OCEANS FROM PLASTIC - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2016 is coming to a close and it finds us in preparation for the 2017 enforcement of the Ballast Water Treatment Systems. We naturally are in thoug ...
Tuesday, 20 December 16
TRADE HAS FELT ITS BUMPS AND SHAKES THIS YEAR - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Trade has felt its bumps and shakes this year, as growing populist protectionist and nationalist movements in the Western world start to take hold. ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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