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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 December 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 15.2 MMST, DOWN 3.1% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million sho ...
Thursday, 29 December 16
CHINA AIMS TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER CAPACITY AT 1,100 GIGAWATTS BY THE END OF 2020 - REUTERS
China aims to cap total primary energy consumption at around 4.4 billion tonnes of coal equivalent in 2017, the director of the National Energy Adm ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND COMMODITY MARKETS HAVE ALREADY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT AND RENEWED OPTIMISM - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As 2016 nears to a close many will be breathing a heavy sigh of relief, having made it through one of the toughest years in this century and lookin ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
BUMA SIGNED APPROXIMATELY US$ 493 MILLION WORTH OF MINING SERVICES CONTRACTS WITH PT ADARO INDONESIA AND PT ANGSANA JAYA ENERGY
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. Has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA") has ...
Monday, 26 December 16
DO THE DERIVATIVES MARKETS MAKE COAL PRICES MORE VOLATILE? 59.21% SAY YES, POLL
COALspot.com: The substantial increase or decrease in coal prices within a short period of time has been supported by a number of fundamental drive ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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