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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 January 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE KEPT SURPRISINGLY FIRM AND ACTIVE DURING THE CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEAR HOLIDAYS - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The first week after a slow Christmas break has started off with little activity and softening rates. Not surprisingly, the market is fi ...
Thursday, 05 January 17
COMPARISON OF HONG KONG AND LONDON ARBITRATION - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst London arbitration is the most popular platform for resolution of charterparty disputes, where the parties involved a ...
Wednesday, 04 January 17
INDONESIA'S COAL PRODUCTION IS ESTIMATED TO REACH 434 MILLION TONS IN 2016 EXCEEDED THE GOVERNMENT'S INITIAL TARGET
Indonesia's coal production is estimated to reach 434 million tons in 2016 exceeded the government's initial target. The Ministry of Energy ...
Tuesday, 03 January 17
BENGKULU TO IMPOSE TOUGHER REGULATION FOR UNPROCESSED COAL AND MINERALS EXPORTS IN 2017 - MEDIA
Bengkulu provincial government is planning to impose tougher regulation for export of coal and mineral in 2017. According to liputan6 online portal ...
Monday, 02 January 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.62 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER; UP 4.18% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,201 Mil ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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