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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 January 17
FFA SUPRAMAX: Q1 AND Q2 TRADING UP TO $7100 WHILE CAL17 PRINTED $7250 - FIS
Capesize
Sentiment has swung quickly on capes and although there appears to be a very short list for open tonnage in the Atlantic Feb dates appea ...
Monday, 09 January 17
COAL MARKETS WERE UNEXPECTEDLY ONE OF THE STRONGEST PERFORMERS OF 2016 - SGX
COALspot.com: Coal markets were unexpectedly one of the strongest performers of 2016, with domestic production restrictions in China as well as sup ...
Monday, 09 January 17
THE INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE SLIDES AFTER THE RECENT RALLY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price slides in January 2017 after the recent rally. The government declared benchmark prices for Indone ...
Friday, 06 January 17
U.S. WEEKLY ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 12.4 MMST; DOWN 18.4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.4 million short ton ...
Thursday, 05 January 17
UNCHANGED COAL-FIRED TARIFFS PRESSURE CHINA'S GENERATORS - FITCH
COALspot.com: China's decision to keep on-grid electricity prices from coal-fired power unchanged amid higher coal prices will further squeeze ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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