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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 January 17
WHY THE SOLUTION TO INDIA'S ENERGY CHALLENGE LIES IN COAL POWER PLANTS - BENJAMIN SPORTON
India’s huge development and energy challenges mean there are economic and development arguments for investing in new coal power plants for t ...
Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL PRICES TO INCREASE IN 2017 AND IN 2018 - EIA
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 158 million short tons (MMst) (18%) in 2016, to 739 MMst, which would be the lowe ...
Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN THIRD QUARTER 2016 TOTALED 2.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 12 January 17
ASIA: COAL'S FUTURE - BENJAMIN SPORTON
As economies develop and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are realised, demand for energy will increase as more peopl ...
Tuesday, 10 January 17
SHIPPING MARKET 2017
After having entered into a New Year, fresh hopes seem to be high for this to be the turning point in the market that many have been looking forwar ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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