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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 January 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AND WAS ALMOST AT SAME LEVELS AS LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market did not change much and was almost at same levels as last week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships ...
Friday, 20 January 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED 15.7 MMST; UP 14.1% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
KOREAN POWER UTILITY BORYEONG POWER TO IMPORT 660K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR MARCH 2017
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 590,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal and 7000 ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
PANAMAX RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market remained flat and the week continued at the same pace as last.
According to Fearnleys weekly dry bulk report, still more ...
Wednesday, 18 January 17
TANKER: THE CLEAN PRODUCT MARKET IS STILL NOT GIVING US ANY CLEAR SIGNS OF RECOVERY - GEORGE VASTARDIS
While we are approaching the Chinese New Year, the Clean Product market is still not giving us any clear signs of recovery, especially on The East ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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