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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 30 January 17
DUE TO LUNAR YEAR HOLIDAYS, THE FREIGHT MARKET STAYED WEAK
COALspot.com: Due to Lunar year holidays and celebration, the Freight market was down in all segments this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tra ...
Friday, 27 January 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT RISES FOR THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made ...
Tuesday, 24 January 17
MARKET UPDATE - ALLIED
This week at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos we had a historic first via the attendance and speech given by China’s pre ...
Monday, 23 January 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED $AU 15.279 BILLION WORTH OF 161.399 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2016
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,453.1 M ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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