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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 February 17
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.13 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 17
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 1,130,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal f ...
Friday, 03 February 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.9% W/W; ROSE 17.7% Y/Y
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 03 February 17
US - EXECUTIVE ORDER ON IMMIGRATION AFFECTS VESSEL CREWS - GARD
From 27 January 2017, crew members carrying Iraqi, Syrian, Sudanese, Iranian, Somalian, Libyan or Yemeni passports are temporarily barred from ente ...
Wednesday, 01 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The recent placement of LOIs for 208kdwt Newcastlemax Newbuildings at $38.5m at Private Chinese Yard identifies with the modern history low for dry ...
Tuesday, 31 January 17
A CASE OF NEW YEAR BLUES FOR THE FAR EAST? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Unlike the typical lull in the market that we note during the period just prior to the Chinese New Year, 2017 has proved to be fairly m ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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