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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 February 17
U.S. COAL OUTPUT IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECLINED BY 158 MMST IN 2016 TO 739 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 08 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
The challenges the oil market has witnessed since the end of 2014 has resulted in a crisis for the global offshore oil and gas exploration industry ...
Tuesday, 07 February 17
WE ARE STILL RIDING ON A WAVE OF MARKET IMPROVEMENT, WITH THE GLOBAL TRADE OF MOST COMMODITIES STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVING GROWTH - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The end of 2016 came with a rejuvenated sentiment amongst most traders and investors, in part through the sigh of relief that 2016 was finally comi ...
Monday, 06 February 17
AFTER MONTHS OF GAINS, THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED MONTHLY COAL BENCHMARK PRICE IS STEADILY DROPPING
COALspot.com: Over the past two months, the HBA of Indonesian thermal coal has dropped around 18.06 percent. It sank to $ 83.32 per ton for Februar ...
Monday, 06 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED ITS DOWNFALL IN ALL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: Due to Lunar year holidays and celebration, the Freight market was declined in all segments week ending 27 January. The fall was cont ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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