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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 February 17
IF I PLAN TO UNDERTAKE A CHARTERPARTY WITH AN UNFAMILIAR ENTITY, WHAT STEPS CAN I TAKE TO ENSURE THE CHARTERER WILL PAY THEIR HIRE? - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to the difficult conditions currently existing in the shipping market, particularly in the offshore sector, Members a ...
Wednesday, 15 February 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Looking at the state of the Dry Bulk market exactly a year ago, there is no doubt that there is a significant improvement and despite the fact that ...
Tuesday, 14 February 17
OPTIMISM HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY FLOW BACK INTO THE DRY BULK MARKET - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Optimism has started to slowly flow back into the dry bulk market, with many in the market showing renewed optimism as the Pacific basin starts to ...
Monday, 13 February 17
COMBINED COAL SALES OF BUMI RESOURCES ROSE TO 87.7 MILLION TONS IN FY'16; UP 10.6 PERCENT Y/Y
COALspot.com: Combined Coal Sales of Bumi Resources rose to 87.7 million tons in FY’16 compared with 79.3 million tons in FY’15. ...
Monday, 13 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO TUMBLE IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continued its downfall in all segments except Panamax for the week ending 10 February 2017.
The Balt ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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