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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINESE EXPORTS SHOWED A YEAR-ON-YEAR RISE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TEN MONTHS; S. KOREA'S EXPORTS UP FOR PAST THREE MONTHS IN A ROW - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have started to some sparks of life in the commodities markets these past weeks, with prices having shown a strong push during the past couple o ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINA SUSPENDS COAL IMPORTS FROM NORTH KOREA FROM 19 FEB
COALspot.com: China is suspended coal imports from North Korea until December 2017. China says it will suspend all imports of coal from North Korea ...
Monday, 20 February 17
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES SLIGHTLY UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week. The Panamax segment was declined for the week ending 17 February 2017.
The Balt ...
Friday, 17 February 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million sh ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE EXPERIENCED A STRONG DOWNTURN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market has shifted sides from Atlantic to Pacific, where Atlantic is now lagging behind with little action and sliding indices, notably ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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