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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 February 17
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS WITHSTANDS OIL PRICE SHOCK - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the Russian oil and gas sector has withstood the oil price stock of 1H16. Key events of 2016 include record ...
Friday, 24 February 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED AT 16.8 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 23 February 17
ULTRA SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA IS GETTING AROUND $10-11K BASIS SINGAPORE DELIVERY
Supramax
The week started off quietly in the Atlantic with more activity in the Pacific basin.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, frontha ...
Wednesday, 22 February 17
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
In 2016 a session of the IMO committee in London, set the new prerequisites effective from January 2020, which will necessitate global Sulphur cont ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
INDIA'S JANUARY COAL IMPORTS DECLINE 21.7 PERCENT YEAR -ON-YEAR TO 14.31 MT - PTI
Coal imports declined by 21.7 per cent to 14.31 million tonnes in January as the power utilities did not lift much fuel due to abundant stock avail ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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