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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 March 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATED AT 15.7 MMST; DECLINE 6.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 02 March 17
ULTRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA COAL ROUNDS IS BEING FIXED AT AROUND MID 11K BSS SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Holiday mode within Atlantic i.e. very few movements but rates remained still positive, mostly in the USG region where tight tonnage sup ...
Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodit ...
Tuesday, 28 February 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 17.39% LESS COAL IN JANUARY; TRADE VALUE UP 11.87% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,625.6 M ...
Monday, 27 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRMED UP THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 57.64% W/W
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commod ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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