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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 March 17
ESTIMATED U.S. COAL PRODUCTION ALMOST FLAT WEEK ENDED MARCH 4, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Friday, 10 March 17
THE 5TH PHILIPPINES POWER AND ELECTRICITY WEEK RETURNS WITH A UNIQUE FOCUS IN 2017
5th Annual Philippines Power & Electricity
18-21 July 2017
Solaire Resort & Casino,Manila, Philippines
http://www.philippinespowe ...
Thursday, 09 March 17
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE DROPPED FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH IN MARCH, GOVERNMENT DATA SHOWED
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price dropped for a fourth straight month in March, government data showed. The ...
Wednesday, 08 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET TODAY PROVIDES MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO LAST YEAR - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
So what's all the fuss about? During the past five months SnP activity has being surging exponentially in the dry bulk sector. Buyers are looki ...
Monday, 06 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO FIRM UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firm up this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk com ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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