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Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there are about 1,000 new building bulk carriers scheduled to be delivered during next year”. Every year for the last seven years the orderbook has been casting a shadow over the long awaited shipping recovery.
Despite record demolition activity, despite slippage and cancellations, too many ships were being delivered in the market for too long. As of today, we still have another 990 bulk carriers scheduled for delivery over the next 3 years - about 650 for 2017 only - so many shipping people are still skeptical about the market's recovery. On the other hand, at the end of 2014 the orderbook for 2015-2017 stood at 1,800 ships, whilst in December 2015 it was at 1,400! So provided also that not all of the currently listed new buildings – many have been canceled without this being reflected in the books - will be delivered, we can see that we are on the downhill of Mount Orderbook.
We are again at a crossroad, with demand trying to find its support against supply (not only newbuildings, but also new ships waiting at shipyards, lay-ups, and slow-steaming) that can still put pressure on ships' utilization. However shipping is mainly for investors who rely on directional investing, which simply requires the market to move consistently in the desired direction, which can be either up or down. So, while during the past years only one thing has been proven, that one cannot and should not make any predictions about the market.
The latest momentum has shown that, if the mistakes of the past are not repeated, the next two years could give the consistency that our community has been long waiting in order to implement their strategy. Purchases during this year have so far been proven brave but profitable and as such, asset prices have been recently on the rise. Those ships built during the 2000s have benefited the most, and we already have a few cases where a quick but substantial profit has been materialized from buying and selling just a few months later.
Another variable that increases complexity in decision making are the upcoming but still 'immature' regulations, as well described in one of our previous insights by my colleague Vassilis, which are affecting not only the ship repair market, but also S&P decisions. The blurry scenery only makes some shipowners more conservative or others more speculative.
Most owners however are price driven and look to buy older ships where the acquisition cost is still close to historically low levels and leave the decision of whether the cost to invest in upgrading is manageable or not, on how the market will be when the implementation time comes.
So on top of our warmer wishes for the holiday period, our quote for the year end is borrowed from the philosopher Epictetus: "Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens".
By Theodoros Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
STABLE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL MINING IN 2017 : FITCH
Fitch Ratings' sector and rating outlooks for the global mining industry in 2017 are both stable, reflecting Fitch's view that prices have ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
CHINESE COAL DEMAND WOULD BE THE KEY FACTOR THAT INFLUENCE WORLD COAL PRICES IN 2017, POLL
“WHAT ARE THE KEY FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE WORLD'S COAL PRICES IN 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALspot.com ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
PANAMAX: THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Market remained firm - true mostly within Atlantic.
Star performer USG remained its title, where Supras reached around USD 21k ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 2% IN 2017 - EIA
U.S. Coal production in November 2016 was 70.7 million short tons (MMst), the third time this year monthly production exceeded 70 MMst, says EIA.
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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