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Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there are about 1,000 new building bulk carriers scheduled to be delivered during next year”. Every year for the last seven years the orderbook has been casting a shadow over the long awaited shipping recovery.
Despite record demolition activity, despite slippage and cancellations, too many ships were being delivered in the market for too long. As of today, we still have another 990 bulk carriers scheduled for delivery over the next 3 years - about 650 for 2017 only - so many shipping people are still skeptical about the market's recovery. On the other hand, at the end of 2014 the orderbook for 2015-2017 stood at 1,800 ships, whilst in December 2015 it was at 1,400! So provided also that not all of the currently listed new buildings – many have been canceled without this being reflected in the books - will be delivered, we can see that we are on the downhill of Mount Orderbook.
We are again at a crossroad, with demand trying to find its support against supply (not only newbuildings, but also new ships waiting at shipyards, lay-ups, and slow-steaming) that can still put pressure on ships' utilization. However shipping is mainly for investors who rely on directional investing, which simply requires the market to move consistently in the desired direction, which can be either up or down. So, while during the past years only one thing has been proven, that one cannot and should not make any predictions about the market.
The latest momentum has shown that, if the mistakes of the past are not repeated, the next two years could give the consistency that our community has been long waiting in order to implement their strategy. Purchases during this year have so far been proven brave but profitable and as such, asset prices have been recently on the rise. Those ships built during the 2000s have benefited the most, and we already have a few cases where a quick but substantial profit has been materialized from buying and selling just a few months later.
Another variable that increases complexity in decision making are the upcoming but still 'immature' regulations, as well described in one of our previous insights by my colleague Vassilis, which are affecting not only the ship repair market, but also S&P decisions. The blurry scenery only makes some shipowners more conservative or others more speculative.
Most owners however are price driven and look to buy older ships where the acquisition cost is still close to historically low levels and leave the decision of whether the cost to invest in upgrading is manageable or not, on how the market will be when the implementation time comes.
So on top of our warmer wishes for the holiday period, our quote for the year end is borrowed from the philosopher Epictetus: "Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens".
By Theodoros Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
STABLE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL MINING IN 2017 : FITCH
Fitch Ratings' sector and rating outlooks for the global mining industry in 2017 are both stable, reflecting Fitch's view that prices have ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
CHINESE COAL DEMAND WOULD BE THE KEY FACTOR THAT INFLUENCE WORLD COAL PRICES IN 2017, POLL
“WHAT ARE THE KEY FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE WORLD'S COAL PRICES IN 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALspot.com ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
PANAMAX: THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Market remained firm - true mostly within Atlantic.
Star performer USG remained its title, where Supras reached around USD 21k ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 2% IN 2017 - EIA
U.S. Coal production in November 2016 was 70.7 million short tons (MMst), the third time this year monthly production exceeded 70 MMst, says EIA.
...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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