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Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there are about 1,000 new building bulk carriers scheduled to be delivered during next year”. Every year for the last seven years the orderbook has been casting a shadow over the long awaited shipping recovery.
Despite record demolition activity, despite slippage and cancellations, too many ships were being delivered in the market for too long. As of today, we still have another 990 bulk carriers scheduled for delivery over the next 3 years - about 650 for 2017 only - so many shipping people are still skeptical about the market's recovery. On the other hand, at the end of 2014 the orderbook for 2015-2017 stood at 1,800 ships, whilst in December 2015 it was at 1,400! So provided also that not all of the currently listed new buildings – many have been canceled without this being reflected in the books - will be delivered, we can see that we are on the downhill of Mount Orderbook.
We are again at a crossroad, with demand trying to find its support against supply (not only newbuildings, but also new ships waiting at shipyards, lay-ups, and slow-steaming) that can still put pressure on ships' utilization. However shipping is mainly for investors who rely on directional investing, which simply requires the market to move consistently in the desired direction, which can be either up or down. So, while during the past years only one thing has been proven, that one cannot and should not make any predictions about the market.
The latest momentum has shown that, if the mistakes of the past are not repeated, the next two years could give the consistency that our community has been long waiting in order to implement their strategy. Purchases during this year have so far been proven brave but profitable and as such, asset prices have been recently on the rise. Those ships built during the 2000s have benefited the most, and we already have a few cases where a quick but substantial profit has been materialized from buying and selling just a few months later.
Another variable that increases complexity in decision making are the upcoming but still 'immature' regulations, as well described in one of our previous insights by my colleague Vassilis, which are affecting not only the ship repair market, but also S&P decisions. The blurry scenery only makes some shipowners more conservative or others more speculative.
Most owners however are price driven and look to buy older ships where the acquisition cost is still close to historically low levels and leave the decision of whether the cost to invest in upgrading is manageable or not, on how the market will be when the implementation time comes.
So on top of our warmer wishes for the holiday period, our quote for the year end is borrowed from the philosopher Epictetus: "Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens".
By Theodoros Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
STABLE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL MINING IN 2017 : FITCH
Fitch Ratings' sector and rating outlooks for the global mining industry in 2017 are both stable, reflecting Fitch's view that prices have ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
CHINESE COAL DEMAND WOULD BE THE KEY FACTOR THAT INFLUENCE WORLD COAL PRICES IN 2017, POLL
“WHAT ARE THE KEY FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE WORLD'S COAL PRICES IN 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALspot.com ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
PANAMAX: THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Market remained firm - true mostly within Atlantic.
Star performer USG remained its title, where Supras reached around USD 21k ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 2% IN 2017 - EIA
U.S. Coal production in November 2016 was 70.7 million short tons (MMst), the third time this year monthly production exceeded 70 MMst, says EIA.
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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