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Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there are about 1,000 new building bulk carriers scheduled to be delivered during next year”. Every year for the last seven years the orderbook has been casting a shadow over the long awaited shipping recovery.
Despite record demolition activity, despite slippage and cancellations, too many ships were being delivered in the market for too long. As of today, we still have another 990 bulk carriers scheduled for delivery over the next 3 years - about 650 for 2017 only - so many shipping people are still skeptical about the market's recovery. On the other hand, at the end of 2014 the orderbook for 2015-2017 stood at 1,800 ships, whilst in December 2015 it was at 1,400! So provided also that not all of the currently listed new buildings – many have been canceled without this being reflected in the books - will be delivered, we can see that we are on the downhill of Mount Orderbook.
We are again at a crossroad, with demand trying to find its support against supply (not only newbuildings, but also new ships waiting at shipyards, lay-ups, and slow-steaming) that can still put pressure on ships' utilization. However shipping is mainly for investors who rely on directional investing, which simply requires the market to move consistently in the desired direction, which can be either up or down. So, while during the past years only one thing has been proven, that one cannot and should not make any predictions about the market.
The latest momentum has shown that, if the mistakes of the past are not repeated, the next two years could give the consistency that our community has been long waiting in order to implement their strategy. Purchases during this year have so far been proven brave but profitable and as such, asset prices have been recently on the rise. Those ships built during the 2000s have benefited the most, and we already have a few cases where a quick but substantial profit has been materialized from buying and selling just a few months later.
Another variable that increases complexity in decision making are the upcoming but still 'immature' regulations, as well described in one of our previous insights by my colleague Vassilis, which are affecting not only the ship repair market, but also S&P decisions. The blurry scenery only makes some shipowners more conservative or others more speculative.
Most owners however are price driven and look to buy older ships where the acquisition cost is still close to historically low levels and leave the decision of whether the cost to invest in upgrading is manageable or not, on how the market will be when the implementation time comes.
So on top of our warmer wishes for the holiday period, our quote for the year end is borrowed from the philosopher Epictetus: "Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens".
By Theodoros Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 December 16
INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL DISMISSED CHURCHILL MINING'S DAMAGES CLAIM AGAINST REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
The Directors of Churchill Mining plc advise that, the ICSID Tribunal (“Tribunal”) granted Indonesia’s application to dismiss the ...
Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% s ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
COAL DEMAND GROWTH TO STALL AS APPETITE WANES, ACCORDING TO IEA
Growth in global coal demand will stall over the next five years as the appetite for the fuel wanes and other energy sources gain ground, according ...
Monday, 12 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.3 MMST, UP 7.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million short ton ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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