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Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there are about 1,000 new building bulk carriers scheduled to be delivered during next year”. Every year for the last seven years the orderbook has been casting a shadow over the long awaited shipping recovery.
Despite record demolition activity, despite slippage and cancellations, too many ships were being delivered in the market for too long. As of today, we still have another 990 bulk carriers scheduled for delivery over the next 3 years - about 650 for 2017 only - so many shipping people are still skeptical about the market's recovery. On the other hand, at the end of 2014 the orderbook for 2015-2017 stood at 1,800 ships, whilst in December 2015 it was at 1,400! So provided also that not all of the currently listed new buildings – many have been canceled without this being reflected in the books - will be delivered, we can see that we are on the downhill of Mount Orderbook.
We are again at a crossroad, with demand trying to find its support against supply (not only newbuildings, but also new ships waiting at shipyards, lay-ups, and slow-steaming) that can still put pressure on ships' utilization. However shipping is mainly for investors who rely on directional investing, which simply requires the market to move consistently in the desired direction, which can be either up or down. So, while during the past years only one thing has been proven, that one cannot and should not make any predictions about the market.
The latest momentum has shown that, if the mistakes of the past are not repeated, the next two years could give the consistency that our community has been long waiting in order to implement their strategy. Purchases during this year have so far been proven brave but profitable and as such, asset prices have been recently on the rise. Those ships built during the 2000s have benefited the most, and we already have a few cases where a quick but substantial profit has been materialized from buying and selling just a few months later.
Another variable that increases complexity in decision making are the upcoming but still 'immature' regulations, as well described in one of our previous insights by my colleague Vassilis, which are affecting not only the ship repair market, but also S&P decisions. The blurry scenery only makes some shipowners more conservative or others more speculative.
Most owners however are price driven and look to buy older ships where the acquisition cost is still close to historically low levels and leave the decision of whether the cost to invest in upgrading is manageable or not, on how the market will be when the implementation time comes.
So on top of our warmer wishes for the holiday period, our quote for the year end is borrowed from the philosopher Epictetus: "Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens".
By Theodoros Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 December 16
TRADE HAS FELT ITS BUMPS AND SHAKES THIS YEAR - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Trade has felt its bumps and shakes this year, as growing populist protectionist and nationalist movements in the Western world start to take hold. ...
Tuesday, 20 December 16
TURNAROUND IN CHINESE ECONOMY HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to the most recent Weekly China Report published by Commodore Research, it has remained encouraging that the turnaround in China’s ...
Monday, 19 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 3.1% PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
Monday, 19 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO SOFTEN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continually decline this past week and ending on a negati ...
Thursday, 15 December 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH USD 7K FOR INDO/CHINA COAL ROUNDS - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Pacific has been relatively quiet this week, with some softening signs.
Supramaxes are achieving around high USD 7k for Indo/China ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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