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Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there are about 1,000 new building bulk carriers scheduled to be delivered during next year”. Every year for the last seven years the orderbook has been casting a shadow over the long awaited shipping recovery.
Despite record demolition activity, despite slippage and cancellations, too many ships were being delivered in the market for too long. As of today, we still have another 990 bulk carriers scheduled for delivery over the next 3 years - about 650 for 2017 only - so many shipping people are still skeptical about the market's recovery. On the other hand, at the end of 2014 the orderbook for 2015-2017 stood at 1,800 ships, whilst in December 2015 it was at 1,400! So provided also that not all of the currently listed new buildings – many have been canceled without this being reflected in the books - will be delivered, we can see that we are on the downhill of Mount Orderbook.
We are again at a crossroad, with demand trying to find its support against supply (not only newbuildings, but also new ships waiting at shipyards, lay-ups, and slow-steaming) that can still put pressure on ships' utilization. However shipping is mainly for investors who rely on directional investing, which simply requires the market to move consistently in the desired direction, which can be either up or down. So, while during the past years only one thing has been proven, that one cannot and should not make any predictions about the market.
The latest momentum has shown that, if the mistakes of the past are not repeated, the next two years could give the consistency that our community has been long waiting in order to implement their strategy. Purchases during this year have so far been proven brave but profitable and as such, asset prices have been recently on the rise. Those ships built during the 2000s have benefited the most, and we already have a few cases where a quick but substantial profit has been materialized from buying and selling just a few months later.
Another variable that increases complexity in decision making are the upcoming but still 'immature' regulations, as well described in one of our previous insights by my colleague Vassilis, which are affecting not only the ship repair market, but also S&P decisions. The blurry scenery only makes some shipowners more conservative or others more speculative.
Most owners however are price driven and look to buy older ships where the acquisition cost is still close to historically low levels and leave the decision of whether the cost to invest in upgrading is manageable or not, on how the market will be when the implementation time comes.
So on top of our warmer wishes for the holiday period, our quote for the year end is borrowed from the philosopher Epictetus: "Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens".
By Theodoros Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 December 16
TRADE HAS FELT ITS BUMPS AND SHAKES THIS YEAR - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Trade has felt its bumps and shakes this year, as growing populist protectionist and nationalist movements in the Western world start to take hold. ...
Tuesday, 20 December 16
TURNAROUND IN CHINESE ECONOMY HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to the most recent Weekly China Report published by Commodore Research, it has remained encouraging that the turnaround in China’s ...
Monday, 19 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 3.1% PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
Monday, 19 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO SOFTEN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continually decline this past week and ending on a negati ...
Thursday, 15 December 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH USD 7K FOR INDO/CHINA COAL ROUNDS - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Pacific has been relatively quiet this week, with some softening signs.
Supramaxes are achieving around high USD 7k for Indo/China ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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