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Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there are about 1,000 new building bulk carriers scheduled to be delivered during next year”. Every year for the last seven years the orderbook has been casting a shadow over the long awaited shipping recovery.
Despite record demolition activity, despite slippage and cancellations, too many ships were being delivered in the market for too long. As of today, we still have another 990 bulk carriers scheduled for delivery over the next 3 years - about 650 for 2017 only - so many shipping people are still skeptical about the market's recovery. On the other hand, at the end of 2014 the orderbook for 2015-2017 stood at 1,800 ships, whilst in December 2015 it was at 1,400! So provided also that not all of the currently listed new buildings – many have been canceled without this being reflected in the books - will be delivered, we can see that we are on the downhill of Mount Orderbook.
We are again at a crossroad, with demand trying to find its support against supply (not only newbuildings, but also new ships waiting at shipyards, lay-ups, and slow-steaming) that can still put pressure on ships' utilization. However shipping is mainly for investors who rely on directional investing, which simply requires the market to move consistently in the desired direction, which can be either up or down. So, while during the past years only one thing has been proven, that one cannot and should not make any predictions about the market.
The latest momentum has shown that, if the mistakes of the past are not repeated, the next two years could give the consistency that our community has been long waiting in order to implement their strategy. Purchases during this year have so far been proven brave but profitable and as such, asset prices have been recently on the rise. Those ships built during the 2000s have benefited the most, and we already have a few cases where a quick but substantial profit has been materialized from buying and selling just a few months later.
Another variable that increases complexity in decision making are the upcoming but still 'immature' regulations, as well described in one of our previous insights by my colleague Vassilis, which are affecting not only the ship repair market, but also S&P decisions. The blurry scenery only makes some shipowners more conservative or others more speculative.
Most owners however are price driven and look to buy older ships where the acquisition cost is still close to historically low levels and leave the decision of whether the cost to invest in upgrading is manageable or not, on how the market will be when the implementation time comes.
So on top of our warmer wishes for the holiday period, our quote for the year end is borrowed from the philosopher Epictetus: "Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens".
By Theodoros Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 December 16
OIL PRICES MAY SEE LITTLE GROWTH BEFORE 2018, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
High inventories and the potential for US shale production to respond quickly to any market tightening mean oil prices may flat line in 2017 before ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
CHINA 2017 OIL, GAS OUTPUT DROP MAY WORSEN ON CAPEX CUT: FITCH
China's oil and gas production may shrink even more in 2017 than in 2016 after the country's leading oil companies cut exploration and prod ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
ANOTHER WONDERFUL WEEK FOR PANAMAX - FEARNLEY
Supramax
A slower start to the week in the Pacific compared to last Trips from N. China to S. China is paying in the range of low USD 5k, while I ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
AUSTRALIA'S PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.08 MT OF COAL IN OCTOBER; DOWN 10.39% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,124.7 Mi ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT TOTALS 17.2 MMST, UP 2.8% : EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17.2 million short ton ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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