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Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there are about 1,000 new building bulk carriers scheduled to be delivered during next year”. Every year for the last seven years the orderbook has been casting a shadow over the long awaited shipping recovery.
Despite record demolition activity, despite slippage and cancellations, too many ships were being delivered in the market for too long. As of today, we still have another 990 bulk carriers scheduled for delivery over the next 3 years - about 650 for 2017 only - so many shipping people are still skeptical about the market's recovery. On the other hand, at the end of 2014 the orderbook for 2015-2017 stood at 1,800 ships, whilst in December 2015 it was at 1,400! So provided also that not all of the currently listed new buildings – many have been canceled without this being reflected in the books - will be delivered, we can see that we are on the downhill of Mount Orderbook.
We are again at a crossroad, with demand trying to find its support against supply (not only newbuildings, but also new ships waiting at shipyards, lay-ups, and slow-steaming) that can still put pressure on ships' utilization. However shipping is mainly for investors who rely on directional investing, which simply requires the market to move consistently in the desired direction, which can be either up or down. So, while during the past years only one thing has been proven, that one cannot and should not make any predictions about the market.
The latest momentum has shown that, if the mistakes of the past are not repeated, the next two years could give the consistency that our community has been long waiting in order to implement their strategy. Purchases during this year have so far been proven brave but profitable and as such, asset prices have been recently on the rise. Those ships built during the 2000s have benefited the most, and we already have a few cases where a quick but substantial profit has been materialized from buying and selling just a few months later.
Another variable that increases complexity in decision making are the upcoming but still 'immature' regulations, as well described in one of our previous insights by my colleague Vassilis, which are affecting not only the ship repair market, but also S&P decisions. The blurry scenery only makes some shipowners more conservative or others more speculative.
Most owners however are price driven and look to buy older ships where the acquisition cost is still close to historically low levels and leave the decision of whether the cost to invest in upgrading is manageable or not, on how the market will be when the implementation time comes.
So on top of our warmer wishes for the holiday period, our quote for the year end is borrowed from the philosopher Epictetus: "Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens".
By Theodoros Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 December 16
OIL PRICES MAY SEE LITTLE GROWTH BEFORE 2018, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
High inventories and the potential for US shale production to respond quickly to any market tightening mean oil prices may flat line in 2017 before ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
CHINA 2017 OIL, GAS OUTPUT DROP MAY WORSEN ON CAPEX CUT: FITCH
China's oil and gas production may shrink even more in 2017 than in 2016 after the country's leading oil companies cut exploration and prod ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
ANOTHER WONDERFUL WEEK FOR PANAMAX - FEARNLEY
Supramax
A slower start to the week in the Pacific compared to last Trips from N. China to S. China is paying in the range of low USD 5k, while I ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
AUSTRALIA'S PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.08 MT OF COAL IN OCTOBER; DOWN 10.39% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,124.7 Mi ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT TOTALS 17.2 MMST, UP 2.8% : EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17.2 million short ton ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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