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Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there are about 1,000 new building bulk carriers scheduled to be delivered during next year”. Every year for the last seven years the orderbook has been casting a shadow over the long awaited shipping recovery.
Despite record demolition activity, despite slippage and cancellations, too many ships were being delivered in the market for too long. As of today, we still have another 990 bulk carriers scheduled for delivery over the next 3 years - about 650 for 2017 only - so many shipping people are still skeptical about the market's recovery. On the other hand, at the end of 2014 the orderbook for 2015-2017 stood at 1,800 ships, whilst in December 2015 it was at 1,400! So provided also that not all of the currently listed new buildings – many have been canceled without this being reflected in the books - will be delivered, we can see that we are on the downhill of Mount Orderbook.
We are again at a crossroad, with demand trying to find its support against supply (not only newbuildings, but also new ships waiting at shipyards, lay-ups, and slow-steaming) that can still put pressure on ships' utilization. However shipping is mainly for investors who rely on directional investing, which simply requires the market to move consistently in the desired direction, which can be either up or down. So, while during the past years only one thing has been proven, that one cannot and should not make any predictions about the market.
The latest momentum has shown that, if the mistakes of the past are not repeated, the next two years could give the consistency that our community has been long waiting in order to implement their strategy. Purchases during this year have so far been proven brave but profitable and as such, asset prices have been recently on the rise. Those ships built during the 2000s have benefited the most, and we already have a few cases where a quick but substantial profit has been materialized from buying and selling just a few months later.
Another variable that increases complexity in decision making are the upcoming but still 'immature' regulations, as well described in one of our previous insights by my colleague Vassilis, which are affecting not only the ship repair market, but also S&P decisions. The blurry scenery only makes some shipowners more conservative or others more speculative.
Most owners however are price driven and look to buy older ships where the acquisition cost is still close to historically low levels and leave the decision of whether the cost to invest in upgrading is manageable or not, on how the market will be when the implementation time comes.
So on top of our warmer wishes for the holiday period, our quote for the year end is borrowed from the philosopher Epictetus: "Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens".
By Theodoros Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 16
IT'S BEEN YET ANOTHER TURBULENT COUPLE OF DAYS..... - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It’s been yet another turbulent couple of days, with a significant number of news headlines shaking up markets.
On Friday we had & ...
Monday, 05 December 16
INDIAN HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2012, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to Commodore Research, the first eleven months of this year have seen India’s overall electricity production total approximately 1. ...
Monday, 05 December 16
THE DECEMBER 2016 HBA HITS TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MAY 2012
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since May 2012. The government declared benchmark prices for Indo ...
Monday, 05 December 16
BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX UP 5.98%; BALTIC CAPE INDEX FELL 2.52% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally slightly continues this past week and ending on a s ...
Sunday, 04 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 11.9% W/E 26 NOV; UP 1.4% Y/Y, EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million short ton ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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