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Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there are about 1,000 new building bulk carriers scheduled to be delivered during next year”. Every year for the last seven years the orderbook has been casting a shadow over the long awaited shipping recovery.
Despite record demolition activity, despite slippage and cancellations, too many ships were being delivered in the market for too long. As of today, we still have another 990 bulk carriers scheduled for delivery over the next 3 years - about 650 for 2017 only - so many shipping people are still skeptical about the market's recovery. On the other hand, at the end of 2014 the orderbook for 2015-2017 stood at 1,800 ships, whilst in December 2015 it was at 1,400! So provided also that not all of the currently listed new buildings – many have been canceled without this being reflected in the books - will be delivered, we can see that we are on the downhill of Mount Orderbook.
We are again at a crossroad, with demand trying to find its support against supply (not only newbuildings, but also new ships waiting at shipyards, lay-ups, and slow-steaming) that can still put pressure on ships' utilization. However shipping is mainly for investors who rely on directional investing, which simply requires the market to move consistently in the desired direction, which can be either up or down. So, while during the past years only one thing has been proven, that one cannot and should not make any predictions about the market.
The latest momentum has shown that, if the mistakes of the past are not repeated, the next two years could give the consistency that our community has been long waiting in order to implement their strategy. Purchases during this year have so far been proven brave but profitable and as such, asset prices have been recently on the rise. Those ships built during the 2000s have benefited the most, and we already have a few cases where a quick but substantial profit has been materialized from buying and selling just a few months later.
Another variable that increases complexity in decision making are the upcoming but still 'immature' regulations, as well described in one of our previous insights by my colleague Vassilis, which are affecting not only the ship repair market, but also S&P decisions. The blurry scenery only makes some shipowners more conservative or others more speculative.
Most owners however are price driven and look to buy older ships where the acquisition cost is still close to historically low levels and leave the decision of whether the cost to invest in upgrading is manageable or not, on how the market will be when the implementation time comes.
So on top of our warmer wishes for the holiday period, our quote for the year end is borrowed from the philosopher Epictetus: "Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens".
By Theodoros Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 December 16
DO THE DERIVATIVES MARKETS MAKE COAL PRICES MORE VOLATILE? 59.21% SAY YES, POLL
COALspot.com: The substantial increase or decrease in coal prices within a short period of time has been supported by a number of fundamental drive ...
Friday, 23 December 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 711.1 MMST; DOWN 18.5% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 22 December 16
INDONESIA LACK OF EXPORT TO INDIA THIS WEEK - FERNLEYS
Supramax
While the Atlantic is keeping up with rates, the Pacific has been weaker says Astrup Fernley.
According to Astrup Fernley, backhaul ...
Wednesday, 21 December 16
THE SUPREME COURT DECISION IN OW BUNKERS - WHEN A SALE OF GOODS IS NOT A SALE OF GOODS - LEON ALEXANDER, CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In May 2016 the Supreme Court of England & Wales gave judgment in an OW Bunkers test case entitled "Res Cogitans ...
Wednesday, 21 December 16
CLEANING THE OCEANS FROM PLASTIC - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2016 is coming to a close and it finds us in preparation for the 2017 enforcement of the Ballast Water Treatment Systems. We naturally are in thoug ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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