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Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there are about 1,000 new building bulk carriers scheduled to be delivered during next year”. Every year for the last seven years the orderbook has been casting a shadow over the long awaited shipping recovery.
Despite record demolition activity, despite slippage and cancellations, too many ships were being delivered in the market for too long. As of today, we still have another 990 bulk carriers scheduled for delivery over the next 3 years - about 650 for 2017 only - so many shipping people are still skeptical about the market's recovery. On the other hand, at the end of 2014 the orderbook for 2015-2017 stood at 1,800 ships, whilst in December 2015 it was at 1,400! So provided also that not all of the currently listed new buildings – many have been canceled without this being reflected in the books - will be delivered, we can see that we are on the downhill of Mount Orderbook.
We are again at a crossroad, with demand trying to find its support against supply (not only newbuildings, but also new ships waiting at shipyards, lay-ups, and slow-steaming) that can still put pressure on ships' utilization. However shipping is mainly for investors who rely on directional investing, which simply requires the market to move consistently in the desired direction, which can be either up or down. So, while during the past years only one thing has been proven, that one cannot and should not make any predictions about the market.
The latest momentum has shown that, if the mistakes of the past are not repeated, the next two years could give the consistency that our community has been long waiting in order to implement their strategy. Purchases during this year have so far been proven brave but profitable and as such, asset prices have been recently on the rise. Those ships built during the 2000s have benefited the most, and we already have a few cases where a quick but substantial profit has been materialized from buying and selling just a few months later.
Another variable that increases complexity in decision making are the upcoming but still 'immature' regulations, as well described in one of our previous insights by my colleague Vassilis, which are affecting not only the ship repair market, but also S&P decisions. The blurry scenery only makes some shipowners more conservative or others more speculative.
Most owners however are price driven and look to buy older ships where the acquisition cost is still close to historically low levels and leave the decision of whether the cost to invest in upgrading is manageable or not, on how the market will be when the implementation time comes.
So on top of our warmer wishes for the holiday period, our quote for the year end is borrowed from the philosopher Epictetus: "Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens".
By Theodoros Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 December 16
DO THE DERIVATIVES MARKETS MAKE COAL PRICES MORE VOLATILE? 59.21% SAY YES, POLL
COALspot.com: The substantial increase or decrease in coal prices within a short period of time has been supported by a number of fundamental drive ...
Friday, 23 December 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 711.1 MMST; DOWN 18.5% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 22 December 16
INDONESIA LACK OF EXPORT TO INDIA THIS WEEK - FERNLEYS
Supramax
While the Atlantic is keeping up with rates, the Pacific has been weaker says Astrup Fernley.
According to Astrup Fernley, backhaul ...
Wednesday, 21 December 16
THE SUPREME COURT DECISION IN OW BUNKERS - WHEN A SALE OF GOODS IS NOT A SALE OF GOODS - LEON ALEXANDER, CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In May 2016 the Supreme Court of England & Wales gave judgment in an OW Bunkers test case entitled "Res Cogitans ...
Wednesday, 21 December 16
CLEANING THE OCEANS FROM PLASTIC - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2016 is coming to a close and it finds us in preparation for the 2017 enforcement of the Ballast Water Treatment Systems. We naturally are in thoug ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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