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Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there are about 1,000 new building bulk carriers scheduled to be delivered during next year”. Every year for the last seven years the orderbook has been casting a shadow over the long awaited shipping recovery.
Despite record demolition activity, despite slippage and cancellations, too many ships were being delivered in the market for too long. As of today, we still have another 990 bulk carriers scheduled for delivery over the next 3 years - about 650 for 2017 only - so many shipping people are still skeptical about the market's recovery. On the other hand, at the end of 2014 the orderbook for 2015-2017 stood at 1,800 ships, whilst in December 2015 it was at 1,400! So provided also that not all of the currently listed new buildings – many have been canceled without this being reflected in the books - will be delivered, we can see that we are on the downhill of Mount Orderbook.
We are again at a crossroad, with demand trying to find its support against supply (not only newbuildings, but also new ships waiting at shipyards, lay-ups, and slow-steaming) that can still put pressure on ships' utilization. However shipping is mainly for investors who rely on directional investing, which simply requires the market to move consistently in the desired direction, which can be either up or down. So, while during the past years only one thing has been proven, that one cannot and should not make any predictions about the market.
The latest momentum has shown that, if the mistakes of the past are not repeated, the next two years could give the consistency that our community has been long waiting in order to implement their strategy. Purchases during this year have so far been proven brave but profitable and as such, asset prices have been recently on the rise. Those ships built during the 2000s have benefited the most, and we already have a few cases where a quick but substantial profit has been materialized from buying and selling just a few months later.
Another variable that increases complexity in decision making are the upcoming but still 'immature' regulations, as well described in one of our previous insights by my colleague Vassilis, which are affecting not only the ship repair market, but also S&P decisions. The blurry scenery only makes some shipowners more conservative or others more speculative.
Most owners however are price driven and look to buy older ships where the acquisition cost is still close to historically low levels and leave the decision of whether the cost to invest in upgrading is manageable or not, on how the market will be when the implementation time comes.
So on top of our warmer wishes for the holiday period, our quote for the year end is borrowed from the philosopher Epictetus: "Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens".
By Theodoros Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 January 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.62 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER; UP 4.18% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,201 Mil ...
Friday, 30 December 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 15.2 MMST, DOWN 3.1% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million sho ...
Thursday, 29 December 16
CHINA AIMS TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER CAPACITY AT 1,100 GIGAWATTS BY THE END OF 2020 - REUTERS
China aims to cap total primary energy consumption at around 4.4 billion tonnes of coal equivalent in 2017, the director of the National Energy Adm ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND COMMODITY MARKETS HAVE ALREADY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT AND RENEWED OPTIMISM - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As 2016 nears to a close many will be breathing a heavy sigh of relief, having made it through one of the toughest years in this century and lookin ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
BUMA SIGNED APPROXIMATELY US$ 493 MILLION WORTH OF MINING SERVICES CONTRACTS WITH PT ADARO INDONESIA AND PT ANGSANA JAYA ENERGY
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. Has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA") has ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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