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Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there are about 1,000 new building bulk carriers scheduled to be delivered during next year”. Every year for the last seven years the orderbook has been casting a shadow over the long awaited shipping recovery.
Despite record demolition activity, despite slippage and cancellations, too many ships were being delivered in the market for too long. As of today, we still have another 990 bulk carriers scheduled for delivery over the next 3 years - about 650 for 2017 only - so many shipping people are still skeptical about the market's recovery. On the other hand, at the end of 2014 the orderbook for 2015-2017 stood at 1,800 ships, whilst in December 2015 it was at 1,400! So provided also that not all of the currently listed new buildings – many have been canceled without this being reflected in the books - will be delivered, we can see that we are on the downhill of Mount Orderbook.
We are again at a crossroad, with demand trying to find its support against supply (not only newbuildings, but also new ships waiting at shipyards, lay-ups, and slow-steaming) that can still put pressure on ships' utilization. However shipping is mainly for investors who rely on directional investing, which simply requires the market to move consistently in the desired direction, which can be either up or down. So, while during the past years only one thing has been proven, that one cannot and should not make any predictions about the market.
The latest momentum has shown that, if the mistakes of the past are not repeated, the next two years could give the consistency that our community has been long waiting in order to implement their strategy. Purchases during this year have so far been proven brave but profitable and as such, asset prices have been recently on the rise. Those ships built during the 2000s have benefited the most, and we already have a few cases where a quick but substantial profit has been materialized from buying and selling just a few months later.
Another variable that increases complexity in decision making are the upcoming but still 'immature' regulations, as well described in one of our previous insights by my colleague Vassilis, which are affecting not only the ship repair market, but also S&P decisions. The blurry scenery only makes some shipowners more conservative or others more speculative.
Most owners however are price driven and look to buy older ships where the acquisition cost is still close to historically low levels and leave the decision of whether the cost to invest in upgrading is manageable or not, on how the market will be when the implementation time comes.
So on top of our warmer wishes for the holiday period, our quote for the year end is borrowed from the philosopher Epictetus: "Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens".
By Theodoros Ntalakos
Newbuilding / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 January 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.62 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER; UP 4.18% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,201 Mil ...
Friday, 30 December 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 15.2 MMST, DOWN 3.1% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million sho ...
Thursday, 29 December 16
CHINA AIMS TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER CAPACITY AT 1,100 GIGAWATTS BY THE END OF 2020 - REUTERS
China aims to cap total primary energy consumption at around 4.4 billion tonnes of coal equivalent in 2017, the director of the National Energy Adm ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND COMMODITY MARKETS HAVE ALREADY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT AND RENEWED OPTIMISM - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As 2016 nears to a close many will be breathing a heavy sigh of relief, having made it through one of the toughest years in this century and lookin ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
BUMA SIGNED APPROXIMATELY US$ 493 MILLION WORTH OF MINING SERVICES CONTRACTS WITH PT ADARO INDONESIA AND PT ANGSANA JAYA ENERGY
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. Has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA") has ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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