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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 July 16
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL INDEXES CONTINUALLY FIRM UP ON ROBUST BUYING INTEREST - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose One percent week over week to averaging $40.38 per ton this past week, shows CS ...
Monday, 18 July 16
FROM PIT TO PORT: DRY BULK NEEDS A NEW PATH TO PROFITABILITY - TOC EUROPE
During the golden years for commodities, from 2005 to 2014, high demand and big profit margins pushed companies to produce more and more, sacrifici ...
Monday, 18 July 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX REMAIN FIRM, UP BY 5.97 WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to remain firm with all segments ending in posi ...
Friday, 15 July 16
US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 8.4% WEEK-OVER-WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.9 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 14 July 16
SHIPPING'S HALF YEAR REPORT - 'MUST DO BETTER' - CLARKSONS
It’s the time of year, with the school holidays and end of term approaching, that many pupils will nervously take home their school reports t ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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