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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 July 16
THE BDI FELL ON WEAKER RATES FOR CAPESIZE & PANAMAX VESSELS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape and Panamax segments ending in neg ...
Friday, 22 July 16
U.S COAL OUTPUT ROSE 17.2% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 21 July 16
WHAT TO DO WHEN YOU DON'T GET PAID - SHIPOWNERS CLUB
Present market conditions have led to an increase in claims related to unpaid hire. To recover unpaid hire, Owners need to fully understand who the ...
Thursday, 21 July 16
CONSTRUCTIVE TOTAL LOSS: WHAT GOES IN TO CALCULATING QUANTUM? - HILL DICKINSON
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Commercial Court recently delivered its judgment in an important case (Connect Shipping Inc and Machrimar Management ...
Wednesday, 20 July 16
EDIBLE OIL MARKETS ACROSS THE GLOBE REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The edible oil markets across the globe remain under pressure on the back of lackluster demand. Some of the main factors causing the low activity a ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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