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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 July 16
DRY BULK MARKET: UP TO 30 MILLION DWT OF OLDER BULKERS WILL NEED TO BE SCRAPPED BY END OF 2017 FOR MARKET TO FIND BALANCE
Tonnage oversupply in the dry bulk market is more than evident, as newbuildings have been hitting the water faster than owners can scrap their olde ...
Friday, 08 July 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 3% TO 14.1 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.1 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
PANAMAX : THE TENDENCY FROM LAST WEEK CONTINUES WITH A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SENTIMENT ALL ACROSS THE BLOCK - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates have been holding at steady levels over the last weeks but towards end of this period they are becoming under more pressure as gen ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
CONSOLIDATION TO RULE OVER SHIPPING, AS EXECUTIVES SEEK INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA, INDIA AND EUROPE SAYS NORTON ROSE SURVEY
The transport sector is looking to Asia Pacific as the key market for investment over the next five years, according to the seventh The way ahead T ...
Wednesday, 06 July 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 780000 MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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