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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 July 16
LAST WEEK ENDING UP WITH BUSIER TONES FOR SUPRAMAXES NOW COOLING DOWN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week ending up with busier tones for Supramaxes now cooling down as with index being down to 684. Average daily earnings for Supram ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
RATES FOR THE SMALLER SIZES OVER-PERFORMED THE MARKET LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
The decline the BDI noted last week was somewhat expected given the fact that the market has been overall firming for almost a month no ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN GLOBAL CONSUMPTION IN 2016 - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Global oil supply is expected to remain higher than global consumption in 2016, keeping oil prices at relatively low levels this summer compared wi ...
Tuesday, 26 July 16
NORTH P&I CLUB EXPLAINS HOW TO AVOID CLAIMS FOR SELF-COOKING SOYA BEANS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
North P&I Club has advised its members to be extra vigilant during loading and transport of soya beans to ensure they ...
Monday, 25 July 16
STRONG BUYER DEMAND PUSHING UP INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL INDICES
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.73 percent week over week to averaging $40.83 per ton this past week, shows C ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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