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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 July 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 15 MMST IN 2016 AND BY 4 MMST IN 2017
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production in June was 57 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (13%) increase from May and 9 MMst (14%) lower than in June 2 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
2015 VS. 2016; THE DRY BULK DEMOLITION DERBY - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In the first half of the year 373 Bulkers and General Cargo ships were scrapped representing 23.8mil tons of dwt carrying capacity.
Comparing ...
Tuesday, 12 July 16
DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS, CS COAL INDICES HELD AT THE SAME LEVEL OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was flat week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week.
Due to the ...
Monday, 11 July 16
COAL MARKETS SAW IMPROVED PRICES IN H1 2016 - SGX'S COMMODITIES MID-YEAR REFLECTION
COALspot.com: Coal
Coal markets saw improved prices in H1 2016 with the benchmark coking coal and thermal coal spot prices rising 18% and 25%, re ...
Monday, 11 July 16
THE MAIN SEA FREIGHT INDEX, BDI ROSE FURTHER ON 8 JULY DUE TO STRONG DEMAND FOR PANAMAX SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.84 percent from las ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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