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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 02 August 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.71% week over week to averaging $41.12 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Monday, 01 August 16
4200 GAR INDONESIAN COAL PRICE MAY TOUCH $ 32/33 A TON LEVELS SOON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal prices are likely surge further in 2016 as the recent price movement in Indonesian coal markets suggests that the mar ...
Monday, 01 August 16
BALTIC INDEX ENDED NEGATIVE NOTE THIS PAST WEEK ON WEAKER RATES ACROSS ALL LARGE VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape, Panamax and Supramax segments end ...
Friday, 29 July 16
U.S. COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15 million short tons ( ...
Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow a ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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