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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 August 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES ARE STARTING TO ZOOM HIGHER; HBA ROSE 10.13% TO US$ 58.37 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since August 2015.
The Director General of Mineral and Coa ...
Thursday, 04 August 16
BREXIT: IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL SHIPPING AND SEA TRADE - EVERSHEDS
The buzzword for the post-Brexit landscape both in Europe and further afield is ‘uncertainty’. No-one really knows the long term effect ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
RECAAP INFORMATION SHARING CENTRE ISSUES SPECIAL REPORT ON THE ABDUCTING OF CREW FROM SHIPS IN WATERS OFF EASTERN SABAH AND SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the light of three incidents where the crew of tug boats were abducted in the waters off Eastern Sabah and Southern Ph ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its glob ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIP TRADING AND ORDERING CLOSE TO A STALEMATE AS SUMMER LULL KICKS IN
With newbuilding activity already at a near standstill since the start of the year, most of 2016’s trading activity in shipping was evident i ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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