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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 August 16
THE BALTIC EXCHANGE, TRACKING RATES FOR SHIPS CARRYING DRY BULK COMMODITIES SLIDE SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Panamax and Supramax segments ending in ...
Monday, 08 August 16
ARE EXPENSES INCURRED DURING NEGOTIATION OF A PIRATE RANSOM RECOVERABLE IN GENERAL AVERAGE? - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Facts
The laden chemical tanker LONGCHAMP was transiting the Gulf of Aden on passage to Vietnam. The ship was subject t ...
Saturday, 06 August 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING CHARTER RATES TO RISE ON UNEXPECTED DEMAND GROWTH - DREWRY
Increasing trade and contracting supply will support a recovery in charter rates on major dry bulk shipping routes, with the prospect of China impo ...
Friday, 05 August 16
WEEKLY U.S. COAL OUTPUT TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 16.1 MMST IN THE WEEK ENDED JULY 30 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short tons ...
Friday, 05 August 16
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE REMAINING AT DEPRESSING LEVELS DUE TO LACK OF FRESH CARGOES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week has been one of the slowest for some time with rates under pressure in most areas.
In its latest weekly report, shipbroke ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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