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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 09 August 16
CS50 COAL INDEX HITS NEW FIFTY-WEEKS HIGH
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 1.78% week over week to averaging $41.85 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND WORLD TRADE ON THE DECLINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YEARS - VDKI
Hard coal production and world trade on the decline for the first time in years – not a harbinger of a global energy turnaround
Worldwid ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
BREXIT, BRITANNIA AND THE WAVES - TREVOR CROWE, CLARKSON RESEARCH
This week, the Bank of England put into place its action plan following the UK referendum on 23rd June, which indicated the British population&rsqu ...
Monday, 08 August 16
INDONESIA'S DRAFT MINING LAW HINTS AT FUTURE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
Monday, 08 August 16
THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT HAS IMPOSED A $15 A TON DUTY ON POWER PLANT COAL IMPORTS - MEDIA
COALspot.com: The Turkish government has imposed a US$15 per ton duty on thermal coal imports for use in its power sector.
According to media ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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