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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 August 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ENDING AUGUST 6 FELL SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
CAPESIZE THE PACIFIC SIDE IS LOOKING MORE POSITIVE, DRIVEN BY AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rates continue to be under pressure with index ending up with 639 points and average TC value at USD6,680, said Fearnleys. Fearnleys A/S ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
EIA ESTIMATES THE DELIVERED COAL PRICE TO U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN 2017 AVERAGED $2.24/MMBTU; $0.05/MMBTU HIGHER THAN 2016 ESTIMATES
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in July was 65 million short tons (MMst), an 8 MMst (14%) increase from the previous month but 11 MMst (15%) low ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT SOFTENING LAST WEEK; WE CAN SEE MUCH HEALTHIER NUMBERS STARTING SEPTEMBER
The Dry Bulk market kept softening last week as we have now started going through the traditionally quieter days of the summer season peak period, ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE INDONESIAN DRAFT NEW MINING LAW - AMENDMENTS TO THE 2009 MINING LAW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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