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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 October 16
CEYLON SHIPPING CORPORATION HAS TAKEN DELIVERY OF COAL CARRIER MV.CEYLON PRINCESS
Sri Lanka’s Ceylon Shipping Corporation (CSC) has taken delivery of its second newly built bulk carrier for the transportation of coal to pow ...
Friday, 07 October 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALLED AN ESTIMATED 540.5 MMST; DOWN 21.9% Y-O-Y, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 06 October 16
SHIPS IN PACIFIC ACHIEVE JUST ABOVE $10K DAILY FOR A BRAZIL ROUND VOYAGE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slower week with limited activity due to holidays in the East. Mixed feelings within different markets, with slight downturn in Pacific ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
OPEC TO SHUT OFF MORE THAN 6 PERCENT OF ITS PRODUCTION; MIXED FEELING AMONGST TRADERS - ALLIED
OPEC recent accord to shut off more than 6 percent of its production this past week has been met with mixed feeling amongst traders. As we mo ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together produ ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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