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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 October 16
CEYLON SHIPPING CORPORATION HAS TAKEN DELIVERY OF COAL CARRIER MV.CEYLON PRINCESS
Sri Lanka’s Ceylon Shipping Corporation (CSC) has taken delivery of its second newly built bulk carrier for the transportation of coal to pow ...
Friday, 07 October 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALLED AN ESTIMATED 540.5 MMST; DOWN 21.9% Y-O-Y, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 06 October 16
SHIPS IN PACIFIC ACHIEVE JUST ABOVE $10K DAILY FOR A BRAZIL ROUND VOYAGE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slower week with limited activity due to holidays in the East. Mixed feelings within different markets, with slight downturn in Pacific ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
OPEC TO SHUT OFF MORE THAN 6 PERCENT OF ITS PRODUCTION; MIXED FEELING AMONGST TRADERS - ALLIED
OPEC recent accord to shut off more than 6 percent of its production this past week has been met with mixed feeling amongst traders. As we mo ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together produ ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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