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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 October 16
INDIAN STEELMAKERS' DELEVERAGING AT RISK ON COKING COAL PRICE JUMP - FITCH
The sharp increase in coking coal prices since August 2016 could squeeze Indian steelmakers' profitability and threaten their deleveraging, Fit ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
UK SEABORNE COAL IMPORT PLUNGES 64% AS A WORRYING TREND LURKS - BIMCO
The main exporters of thermal coal for coal- fired power plants to the United Kingdom (UK) have experienced a heavy decline in seaborne cargo volum ...
Monday, 10 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since September 2014. The government declared benchmark prices for Indon ...
Monday, 10 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET FIRMS UP ON STRONG CAPE PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose again and ending in a positive note this past week. ...
Friday, 07 October 16
INDONESIA'S DEMAND FOR COAL REMAINS STRONG: BP
Indonesia's domestic demand for coal shows no sign of slowing down as the country is banking on its coal abundance to meet the country' ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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