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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 October 16
INDIAN STEELMAKERS' DELEVERAGING AT RISK ON COKING COAL PRICE JUMP - FITCH
The sharp increase in coking coal prices since August 2016 could squeeze Indian steelmakers' profitability and threaten their deleveraging, Fit ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
UK SEABORNE COAL IMPORT PLUNGES 64% AS A WORRYING TREND LURKS - BIMCO
The main exporters of thermal coal for coal- fired power plants to the United Kingdom (UK) have experienced a heavy decline in seaborne cargo volum ...
Monday, 10 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since September 2014. The government declared benchmark prices for Indon ...
Monday, 10 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET FIRMS UP ON STRONG CAPE PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose again and ending in a positive note this past week. ...
Friday, 07 October 16
INDONESIA'S DEMAND FOR COAL REMAINS STRONG: BP
Indonesia's domestic demand for coal shows no sign of slowing down as the country is banking on its coal abundance to meet the country' ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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