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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 October 16
COAL PRICES KEPT CLIMBING
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Tuesday, 18 October 16
PANAMAX: A FAIRLY POSITIVE END TO THE WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Things seemed to be moving sideways during the first half of the week, with resistance being felt as owners tried to resist any further ...
Monday, 17 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS SOFTENED IN ALL SEGMENTS THIS PAST WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 14 October 16
SUPRAMAXES: DELIVERY SINGAPORE ARE SETTLING AROUND HIGH 6K'S FOR COAL TRIPS TO CHINA VIA INDO - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Wait and see attitude prevailing all over the market.
There have been several fresh cargoes, which have been efficiently covered by ...
Friday, 14 October 16
U.S. SHIPPED 3.3 MMST COAL IN JULY 2016; DECLINE 40% M/M
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.6 million short ton ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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