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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 October 16
COAL PRICES KEPT CLIMBING
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Tuesday, 18 October 16
PANAMAX: A FAIRLY POSITIVE END TO THE WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Things seemed to be moving sideways during the first half of the week, with resistance being felt as owners tried to resist any further ...
Monday, 17 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS SOFTENED IN ALL SEGMENTS THIS PAST WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 14 October 16
SUPRAMAXES: DELIVERY SINGAPORE ARE SETTLING AROUND HIGH 6K'S FOR COAL TRIPS TO CHINA VIA INDO - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Wait and see attitude prevailing all over the market.
There have been several fresh cargoes, which have been efficiently covered by ...
Friday, 14 October 16
U.S. SHIPPED 3.3 MMST COAL IN JULY 2016; DECLINE 40% M/M
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.6 million short ton ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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