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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 30 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 2.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is la ...
Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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