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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 September 16
WITHOUT A DOUBT FREIGHT RATES HAVE MOVED UP A BIT TO HEALTHIER LEVELS - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching Q4, it is interesting to perform a review of the last nine months with respect to the second-hand prices of Supramax and Pana ...
Tuesday, 27 September 16
THE CAPESIZE RATE OF INCREASE HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE, UP 39% W/W AND 123% MONTH TO DATE - ALLIED
The Dry bulk market has seen a rare shine in its performance as the capesize sector manages to rally at an unprecedented rate compared to its perfo ...
Monday, 26 September 16
COAL PRICES HAVE BEEN MOVING STEADILY HIGHER AFTER YEARS OF DECLINE
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 26 September 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRM; ALL SEGMENTS WERE UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
Friday, 23 September 16
"COLLATERAL LIES" DO NOT NECESSARILY UNDERMINE AN INSURANCE CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An insured was not precluded from recovering under an insurance policy even though it had made a false statement during t ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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