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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 October 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.2% TO 16 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
Monday, 24 October 16
DRY BULK:MARKET ENDS WEEK WITH MIXED REACTIONS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ending with mixed direction as Cape and BDI was declined ...
Thursday, 20 October 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 16.97 PERCENT MORE COAL IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,216.7 m ...
Thursday, 20 October 16
A SUPRAMAX HAVE BEEN FIXED AT $12,500 FOR A INDIA TO BANGLADESH TRIP - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A bit more activities with modest upturn in rates.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero has seen cons ...
Wednesday, 19 October 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IS IN A WAIT AND SEE MODE - INTERMODAL
We are now heading towards the end of a rather volatile 2016 for the dry bulk segment. During the last 10 months there were never any clear indicat ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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