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Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
 In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand growth/patterns, and deflation in asset prices. And how prevalently this deflation has already manifested in newbuilding prices! In real dollar terms, we are currently at historic all-time lows!
In regards to dry bulkers, there is essentially no newbuilding market due to the steep discount of newbuilding resales versus ‘new’ newbuilding contracts. For example, Chinese Cape resales stand at rgn $33m while no yard can quote less than low $40m’s for newbuilding. Newbuilding prices are well into all-time inflation-adjusted lows. For instance, in 1985 at the absolute nominal nadir, Panamax Bulker newbuildings could be contracted at $13.5m which translate at $30.2m today’s dollars. This is low enough for investing because it is substantially below the true cost of creating the underlying asset and the current NB resale prices benchmark a nominal 15-year low vs newbuilding prices, a metric that appears unbeatable for several investments including shipping.
Tanker newbuilding prices are also depressed but at least there is a thin market with several LOIs placed and fewer actual contracts. Interestingly, in nominal terms we are well below the 2012 lows, one of the worst tanker freight years in modern history. This can be attributed to the deteriorating lack of financing and outlook on the segment. Tanker newbuildings will eventually become a buying opportunity since second hand vessel prices have been correcting but not any close to the dry bulk levels (the last is tanker owners’ worst fear).
Shipbuilding prices are moving towards the bottom while will remain low for some time -unless something spectacular occurs in the freight market- due to government subsidies, over-competition, low commodity prices, currencies devaluations, lack of financing and the yards resolution to accept loss-making orders to keep the production line going. On the other hand, the substantial downsizing of shipbuilding overcapacity, the emergence of government-backed NB contracts, certain attempts to cartelize pricing (see, Korea) and regulatory developments constitute major resistance levels.
All in all, the prevailing dry bulk newbuilding resales represent an attractive entry point. The ongoing correction in tanker newbuilding prices, which are already well-below the 2002 crashed prices in real dollars, will eventually lead to excellently timed orders. Hopefully over-ordering this time will be avoided thanks to lack of financing and the recent/ongoing traumas.Chartering (Wet: Stable +/ Dry: Firm +)
With a lot of help from Capes last week, the dry bulk market reached levels last seen back in 2015. The BDI closed today (13/09/2016) at 796 points, down by 8 points compared to yesterday’s levels (12/09/2016) and an increase of 51 points when compared to previous Tuesday’s closing (06/09/2016). Despite the fact that earnings kept witnessing pressure in some cases, activity for the crude carriers remained healthy, fact that will act as a meaningful support in the following days. The BDTI on Monday (12/09/2016) was at 543 points, an increase of 26 points and the BCTI at 402, a decrease of 32 points compared to last Tuesday’s (05/09/2016) levels.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together produ ...
Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 30 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 2.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is la ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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