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Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
 In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand growth/patterns, and deflation in asset prices. And how prevalently this deflation has already manifested in newbuilding prices! In real dollar terms, we are currently at historic all-time lows!
In regards to dry bulkers, there is essentially no newbuilding market due to the steep discount of newbuilding resales versus ‘new’ newbuilding contracts. For example, Chinese Cape resales stand at rgn $33m while no yard can quote less than low $40m’s for newbuilding. Newbuilding prices are well into all-time inflation-adjusted lows. For instance, in 1985 at the absolute nominal nadir, Panamax Bulker newbuildings could be contracted at $13.5m which translate at $30.2m today’s dollars. This is low enough for investing because it is substantially below the true cost of creating the underlying asset and the current NB resale prices benchmark a nominal 15-year low vs newbuilding prices, a metric that appears unbeatable for several investments including shipping.
Tanker newbuilding prices are also depressed but at least there is a thin market with several LOIs placed and fewer actual contracts. Interestingly, in nominal terms we are well below the 2012 lows, one of the worst tanker freight years in modern history. This can be attributed to the deteriorating lack of financing and outlook on the segment. Tanker newbuildings will eventually become a buying opportunity since second hand vessel prices have been correcting but not any close to the dry bulk levels (the last is tanker owners’ worst fear).
Shipbuilding prices are moving towards the bottom while will remain low for some time -unless something spectacular occurs in the freight market- due to government subsidies, over-competition, low commodity prices, currencies devaluations, lack of financing and the yards resolution to accept loss-making orders to keep the production line going. On the other hand, the substantial downsizing of shipbuilding overcapacity, the emergence of government-backed NB contracts, certain attempts to cartelize pricing (see, Korea) and regulatory developments constitute major resistance levels.
All in all, the prevailing dry bulk newbuilding resales represent an attractive entry point. The ongoing correction in tanker newbuilding prices, which are already well-below the 2002 crashed prices in real dollars, will eventually lead to excellently timed orders. Hopefully over-ordering this time will be avoided thanks to lack of financing and the recent/ongoing traumas.Chartering (Wet: Stable +/ Dry: Firm +)
With a lot of help from Capes last week, the dry bulk market reached levels last seen back in 2015. The BDI closed today (13/09/2016) at 796 points, down by 8 points compared to yesterday’s levels (12/09/2016) and an increase of 51 points when compared to previous Tuesday’s closing (06/09/2016). Despite the fact that earnings kept witnessing pressure in some cases, activity for the crude carriers remained healthy, fact that will act as a meaningful support in the following days. The BDTI on Monday (12/09/2016) was at 543 points, an increase of 26 points and the BCTI at 402, a decrease of 32 points compared to last Tuesday’s (05/09/2016) levels.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
Wednesday, 28 September 16
WITHOUT A DOUBT FREIGHT RATES HAVE MOVED UP A BIT TO HEALTHIER LEVELS - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching Q4, it is interesting to perform a review of the last nine months with respect to the second-hand prices of Supramax and Pana ...
Tuesday, 27 September 16
THE CAPESIZE RATE OF INCREASE HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE, UP 39% W/W AND 123% MONTH TO DATE - ALLIED
The Dry bulk market has seen a rare shine in its performance as the capesize sector manages to rally at an unprecedented rate compared to its perfo ...
Monday, 26 September 16
COAL PRICES HAVE BEEN MOVING STEADILY HIGHER AFTER YEARS OF DECLINE
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 26 September 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRM; ALL SEGMENTS WERE UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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