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Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
 In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand growth/patterns, and deflation in asset prices. And how prevalently this deflation has already manifested in newbuilding prices! In real dollar terms, we are currently at historic all-time lows!
In regards to dry bulkers, there is essentially no newbuilding market due to the steep discount of newbuilding resales versus ‘new’ newbuilding contracts. For example, Chinese Cape resales stand at rgn $33m while no yard can quote less than low $40m’s for newbuilding. Newbuilding prices are well into all-time inflation-adjusted lows. For instance, in 1985 at the absolute nominal nadir, Panamax Bulker newbuildings could be contracted at $13.5m which translate at $30.2m today’s dollars. This is low enough for investing because it is substantially below the true cost of creating the underlying asset and the current NB resale prices benchmark a nominal 15-year low vs newbuilding prices, a metric that appears unbeatable for several investments including shipping.
Tanker newbuilding prices are also depressed but at least there is a thin market with several LOIs placed and fewer actual contracts. Interestingly, in nominal terms we are well below the 2012 lows, one of the worst tanker freight years in modern history. This can be attributed to the deteriorating lack of financing and outlook on the segment. Tanker newbuildings will eventually become a buying opportunity since second hand vessel prices have been correcting but not any close to the dry bulk levels (the last is tanker owners’ worst fear).
Shipbuilding prices are moving towards the bottom while will remain low for some time -unless something spectacular occurs in the freight market- due to government subsidies, over-competition, low commodity prices, currencies devaluations, lack of financing and the yards resolution to accept loss-making orders to keep the production line going. On the other hand, the substantial downsizing of shipbuilding overcapacity, the emergence of government-backed NB contracts, certain attempts to cartelize pricing (see, Korea) and regulatory developments constitute major resistance levels.
All in all, the prevailing dry bulk newbuilding resales represent an attractive entry point. The ongoing correction in tanker newbuilding prices, which are already well-below the 2002 crashed prices in real dollars, will eventually lead to excellently timed orders. Hopefully over-ordering this time will be avoided thanks to lack of financing and the recent/ongoing traumas.Chartering (Wet: Stable +/ Dry: Firm +)
With a lot of help from Capes last week, the dry bulk market reached levels last seen back in 2015. The BDI closed today (13/09/2016) at 796 points, down by 8 points compared to yesterday’s levels (12/09/2016) and an increase of 51 points when compared to previous Tuesday’s closing (06/09/2016). Despite the fact that earnings kept witnessing pressure in some cases, activity for the crude carriers remained healthy, fact that will act as a meaningful support in the following days. The BDTI on Monday (12/09/2016) was at 543 points, an increase of 26 points and the BCTI at 402, a decrease of 32 points compared to last Tuesday’s (05/09/2016) levels.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 16
"COLLATERAL LIES" DO NOT NECESSARILY UNDERMINE AN INSURANCE CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An insured was not precluded from recovering under an insurance policy even though it had made a false statement during t ...
Friday, 23 September 16
EIA SEES U.S. COAL WEEKLY OUTPUT INCREASE
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 22 September 16
CHINA IS THE PRICE-SETTING COUNTRY FOR GLOBAL THERMAL COAL
COALspot.com: China has been the driver of global coal growth since 2009. When China became the largest coal importer in 2011, the country also has ...
Thursday, 22 September 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND $7000 FOR A TRIP WITH SINGAPORE DELIVERY VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA
Supramax
A slow start to the week in the Supramax segment in the Atlantic with not much being reported.
In the Blacksea Supramaxes are getti ...
Wednesday, 21 September 16
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS BEEN ON A RALLYING TREND SINCE THE END OF AUGUST - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The Capesize market has been on a rallying trend since the end of August, fuelled mainly by the chase by traders to pre-stock before the typical pi ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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