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Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
 In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand growth/patterns, and deflation in asset prices. And how prevalently this deflation has already manifested in newbuilding prices! In real dollar terms, we are currently at historic all-time lows!
In regards to dry bulkers, there is essentially no newbuilding market due to the steep discount of newbuilding resales versus ‘new’ newbuilding contracts. For example, Chinese Cape resales stand at rgn $33m while no yard can quote less than low $40m’s for newbuilding. Newbuilding prices are well into all-time inflation-adjusted lows. For instance, in 1985 at the absolute nominal nadir, Panamax Bulker newbuildings could be contracted at $13.5m which translate at $30.2m today’s dollars. This is low enough for investing because it is substantially below the true cost of creating the underlying asset and the current NB resale prices benchmark a nominal 15-year low vs newbuilding prices, a metric that appears unbeatable for several investments including shipping.
Tanker newbuilding prices are also depressed but at least there is a thin market with several LOIs placed and fewer actual contracts. Interestingly, in nominal terms we are well below the 2012 lows, one of the worst tanker freight years in modern history. This can be attributed to the deteriorating lack of financing and outlook on the segment. Tanker newbuildings will eventually become a buying opportunity since second hand vessel prices have been correcting but not any close to the dry bulk levels (the last is tanker owners’ worst fear).
Shipbuilding prices are moving towards the bottom while will remain low for some time -unless something spectacular occurs in the freight market- due to government subsidies, over-competition, low commodity prices, currencies devaluations, lack of financing and the yards resolution to accept loss-making orders to keep the production line going. On the other hand, the substantial downsizing of shipbuilding overcapacity, the emergence of government-backed NB contracts, certain attempts to cartelize pricing (see, Korea) and regulatory developments constitute major resistance levels.
All in all, the prevailing dry bulk newbuilding resales represent an attractive entry point. The ongoing correction in tanker newbuilding prices, which are already well-below the 2002 crashed prices in real dollars, will eventually lead to excellently timed orders. Hopefully over-ordering this time will be avoided thanks to lack of financing and the recent/ongoing traumas.Chartering (Wet: Stable +/ Dry: Firm +)
With a lot of help from Capes last week, the dry bulk market reached levels last seen back in 2015. The BDI closed today (13/09/2016) at 796 points, down by 8 points compared to yesterday’s levels (12/09/2016) and an increase of 51 points when compared to previous Tuesday’s closing (06/09/2016). Despite the fact that earnings kept witnessing pressure in some cases, activity for the crude carriers remained healthy, fact that will act as a meaningful support in the following days. The BDTI on Monday (12/09/2016) was at 543 points, an increase of 26 points and the BCTI at 402, a decrease of 32 points compared to last Tuesday’s (05/09/2016) levels.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 October 16
INDONESIA'S DEMAND FOR COAL REMAINS STRONG: BP
Indonesia's domestic demand for coal shows no sign of slowing down as the country is banking on its coal abundance to meet the country' ...
Friday, 07 October 16
CEYLON SHIPPING CORPORATION HAS TAKEN DELIVERY OF COAL CARRIER MV.CEYLON PRINCESS
Sri Lanka’s Ceylon Shipping Corporation (CSC) has taken delivery of its second newly built bulk carrier for the transportation of coal to pow ...
Friday, 07 October 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALLED AN ESTIMATED 540.5 MMST; DOWN 21.9% Y-O-Y, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 06 October 16
SHIPS IN PACIFIC ACHIEVE JUST ABOVE $10K DAILY FOR A BRAZIL ROUND VOYAGE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slower week with limited activity due to holidays in the East. Mixed feelings within different markets, with slight downturn in Pacific ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
OPEC TO SHUT OFF MORE THAN 6 PERCENT OF ITS PRODUCTION; MIXED FEELING AMONGST TRADERS - ALLIED
OPEC recent accord to shut off more than 6 percent of its production this past week has been met with mixed feeling amongst traders. As we mo ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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