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Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
 In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand growth/patterns, and deflation in asset prices. And how prevalently this deflation has already manifested in newbuilding prices! In real dollar terms, we are currently at historic all-time lows!
In regards to dry bulkers, there is essentially no newbuilding market due to the steep discount of newbuilding resales versus ‘new’ newbuilding contracts. For example, Chinese Cape resales stand at rgn $33m while no yard can quote less than low $40m’s for newbuilding. Newbuilding prices are well into all-time inflation-adjusted lows. For instance, in 1985 at the absolute nominal nadir, Panamax Bulker newbuildings could be contracted at $13.5m which translate at $30.2m today’s dollars. This is low enough for investing because it is substantially below the true cost of creating the underlying asset and the current NB resale prices benchmark a nominal 15-year low vs newbuilding prices, a metric that appears unbeatable for several investments including shipping.
Tanker newbuilding prices are also depressed but at least there is a thin market with several LOIs placed and fewer actual contracts. Interestingly, in nominal terms we are well below the 2012 lows, one of the worst tanker freight years in modern history. This can be attributed to the deteriorating lack of financing and outlook on the segment. Tanker newbuildings will eventually become a buying opportunity since second hand vessel prices have been correcting but not any close to the dry bulk levels (the last is tanker owners’ worst fear).
Shipbuilding prices are moving towards the bottom while will remain low for some time -unless something spectacular occurs in the freight market- due to government subsidies, over-competition, low commodity prices, currencies devaluations, lack of financing and the yards resolution to accept loss-making orders to keep the production line going. On the other hand, the substantial downsizing of shipbuilding overcapacity, the emergence of government-backed NB contracts, certain attempts to cartelize pricing (see, Korea) and regulatory developments constitute major resistance levels.
All in all, the prevailing dry bulk newbuilding resales represent an attractive entry point. The ongoing correction in tanker newbuilding prices, which are already well-below the 2002 crashed prices in real dollars, will eventually lead to excellently timed orders. Hopefully over-ordering this time will be avoided thanks to lack of financing and the recent/ongoing traumas.Chartering (Wet: Stable +/ Dry: Firm +)
With a lot of help from Capes last week, the dry bulk market reached levels last seen back in 2015. The BDI closed today (13/09/2016) at 796 points, down by 8 points compared to yesterday’s levels (12/09/2016) and an increase of 51 points when compared to previous Tuesday’s closing (06/09/2016). Despite the fact that earnings kept witnessing pressure in some cases, activity for the crude carriers remained healthy, fact that will act as a meaningful support in the following days. The BDTI on Monday (12/09/2016) was at 543 points, an increase of 26 points and the BCTI at 402, a decrease of 32 points compared to last Tuesday’s (05/09/2016) levels.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Ar ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
INDIAN STEELMAKERS' DELEVERAGING AT RISK ON COKING COAL PRICE JUMP - FITCH
The sharp increase in coking coal prices since August 2016 could squeeze Indian steelmakers' profitability and threaten their deleveraging, Fit ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
UK SEABORNE COAL IMPORT PLUNGES 64% AS A WORRYING TREND LURKS - BIMCO
The main exporters of thermal coal for coal- fired power plants to the United Kingdom (UK) have experienced a heavy decline in seaborne cargo volum ...
Monday, 10 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since September 2014. The government declared benchmark prices for Indon ...
Monday, 10 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET FIRMS UP ON STRONG CAPE PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose again and ending in a positive note this past week. ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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